UNC vs. Duke, Round 1

UNC and Duke are tied for first place in the ACC, both sporting records of 7-2. Who has the advantage tonight?

Two major matchups tonight:

1. UNC's perimeter defense vs. Duke's 3-point shooters. Duke averages 20 3-point attempts a game, making 7 per game. This is not a great percentage, but they can shoot lights out on some nights. UNC has given up some big numbers against talented guards, specifically Rice of BC and Teague of Wake.
2. UNC's inside game vs. Duke's small lineup. UNC should have its way against Zoubek and Thomas. I don't see anyone stopping Davis and Hansbrough effectively tonight.

Duke's got a good team, probably performing better than what I expected out of them at this point in 2009. They have shown some vulnerability against the full court trap, especially how Clemson dominated them last week. I'm sure Coach K has worked to improve this facet, but UNC may be able to exploit this weakness tonight.

Some interesting stats:

• UNC averages 7 for 19 from 3 point land this year, vs. Duke's 7-20.
• Duke's shooting 45% from the field. UNC averages 49%
• UNC averages 43 rebounds per game. Duke averages 40.
• All five UNC starters average at least 10 points a game. Duke has only 3 averaging at least 10 points a game.
• UNC has 8 players receiving regular game minutes. Duke has 9, but Duke also has 2 players averaging more than 30 minutes a game (Hansbrough averages the most for the Heels with 29).

UNC can match Duke on perimeter offense, and can dominate Duke within the paint. It's up to Duke to hit their 3 pointers if they want to win this game.

Prediction: UNC 80, Duke 75.