After a disappointing season, the Heels will have a chance to regroup and become a force again within the ACC and the NCAA. But can the Heels shake the injuries from 2009-10? Will they regain their confidence?
Let's look at the players that will be leaving in 2009-2010: Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard. Deon did not have a good senior season, at least compared to his Sophomore and Junior years. He was not the player that the Heels needed. I thought he would add some composure and leadership to the younger Heels, but that wasn't the case. Marcus Ginyard is simply not the player he was before the 2008-09 foot injury year. He's never been very effective on Offense, but his defensive prowess made up for many of his shortcomings. Not this year. He's been a step too slow, and he seems to be a foul magnet. His leadership and savvy wasn't present, either. We will also lose Marc Campbell, but Campbell is really just a practice player. Not to minimize a practice player, but he didn't contribute on the hardwood during playing time.
I thought we would take a look at each position of the court for next year.
Center (#5). Tyler Zeller will have to be the man in the paint. He's been riddled with injuries his first 2 years, but I think once he gets set into a rhythm, he will be a force. I don't think he's necessarily injury-proned: having a broken wrist on a hard foul doesn't qualify, IMHO. Backing up Zeller will have to be the Wear Twins and possibly Ed Davis. Zeller is probably underrated as a Defensive player. He's tougher than he looks.
Power Forward (#4). This should be Ed Davis's domain. He's really undersized at the 5 position, but his skills will excel in the power forward role. He can rebound, he can play D, and he can score. The Wear Twins will also spell for him on occassion. I imagine that John Henson will also receive some playing time at this position. Henson is also solid on D.
Swing Man/Small Forward (#3). While Will Graves can get hot and hit a lot of threes, his play is somewhat erratic. He actually played better within the paint on D while he was a threat on O around the perimeter. He was third in rebounding this year, which is pretty impressive for a guy who is 6'6" tall (especially when you had a team with Zeller, Davis, Thompson, D. Wear, T. Wear, and Henson). I think Harrison Barnes, probably the best freshman in the country, will start ahead of Graves sometime during the season. Graves will have to worry about Barnes cutting into his playing time. We should see much improved play on both the offensive and defensive side next year from the #3 position.
Shooting Guard (#2). I think Will Graves might inherit this position, or at least some playing time during the 2010-11 season. He's a defensive liability when guarding the perimeter, but he can light it up on occassion from 3 point land. We should see Strickland getting some playing time during the season, along with Leslie McDonald, but neither Strickland or McDonald are a strong offensive weapon. The guy who I think will be the starter at the end of the season is a freshman named Reggie Bullock. He's a great shooting guard, but can he play D?
Point Guard (#1). I won't knock Larry Drew II. He's a decent point guard, but he didn't have the offensive talent around him to shine this past season. Graves is not quick enough to get open on a split second, and, as a result, other teams could "pack it in" in the paint. He's got decent defensive skills, but I don't know how bad his confidence is shaken. He'll probably start the season as the point guard, but he better "step it up" or Kendall Marshall will take his job. Drew II was not a big offensive weapon, but maybe with a new cast around him, he can work more on his shooting game.
Overall, we will see a lot of competition next year at every position. If I had to predict the starting lineup for the first game of the season, it would be Zeller, Davis, Graves, Bullock, and Drew II. The top 3 subs will be Henson, Barnes, and Marshall. Also getting some playing time will be Strickland, McDonald, D. Wear, and T. Wear. That's a lot of players for a playing rotation, so during the season you might see McDonald and one of the Wear Twins playing only during garbage time.
Probably sometime during the first 10 games, you will see Henson, Barnes and Marshall as starters, replacing Zeller, Bullock, and Drew II, respectively (with Will Graves possibly moving to the shooting guard position). Ed Davis will need to step up into a leadership position on the court, and I also believe Graves might be another leader, if possible. I don't question Davis as a leader, but Graves might have a psyche similar to Ginyard. I hope he proves me wrong.
