The Final Four is set and the Heels are participants!

Go Heels!!





My first year I prepared brackets was in 1982. That year I picked UNC, and they won the Championship. I've had a bracket (just one) every year since.

I've been guilty of picking UNC many of those years. I picked the Heels to win everything in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2008.

This year, I picked Villanova to win it all. Many people thought the Wildcats were a longshot, but not me. The Cats' have some talent.

My Final Four picks this year are UNC, Villanova, Memphis, and Michigan State. I have Michigan State over Villanova in the finals. But my picks were almost 3 weeks ago. A lot have changed since then.

First, UNC has played the best 4 games of the season since the non-conference portion of our schedule. We've played one cupcake (Radford), one underrated team (LSU), one overrated team (Gonzaga) and one one-dimensional team (Oklahoma). All four teams have had some weaknesses that we exploited. Going forward, teams are stronger and have less weaknesses to exploit.



First off, I think UNC will defeat Villanova. The Wildcats played an excellent game against Pitt, but I don't see them hanging with our big men. The Cats' will have to defend both the inside and the outside. The Heels have too many weapons to stop.



Keys to the UNC-Villanova game:

1. Pound it inside and feed Hansbrough the ball. Enough said.
2. Perimeter Defense...enough said again.
3. Distribute the ball among the players evenly. The Heels have too many weapons not to spread the wealth around.
4. Win the turnover margin. The Heels have won the last 4 games by minimizing the amount of turnovers and capitalizing on the other teams' mistakes.

I expect a hard fought game with the Heels winning, 88-80. I also expect that Michigan State will bring the house down by defeating UConn, 71-67.

The Heels vs The Zags, 9:57 pm Friday night

Have I told everyone how I dislike these late games? UGH.

The Heels are not hitting on all eight cylinders, but we probably have enough in the tank to survive and advance to the Elite Eight. Am I worried? Of course. Will the Heels win? Probably.

Keys to the game:

1. Go inside, and then go inside again. Allow Hansbrough to be the dominate force and carry the team inside. Lawson may be the MVP of the Heels, but Hansbrough is the force to be reckoned with. Allow Davis to exert himself on the boards, and let Thompson to sneak up on everyone and score 12 points.
2. Disco Danny. He's forcing his game too much. He needs to be poised during the game and let the game come to him. He does seem to thrive on pressure, and he can make the critical shots. When the game is not on the line, he will make some bad shots. We need him to minimize his shooting and maximize on his other assets, such as rebounding.
3. Lawson needs to charge his jets. Lawson is a great player, probably the best point guard in the nation. Allow him to drive to the basket and either shoot or dish out the rock.
4. DEFENSE. Nothing more, nothing less.

This will be a close game, and the Heels will put some of our fans into cardiac arrest. The Heels will be fighting the entire game, and it will be a struggle.

Final Prediction: UNC 91, Gonzaga 85.

The Heels are in the Sweet Sixteen

Last week I was on vacation, so I didn't get a chance to give everyone my picks. That's probably a good thing.

This tournament has been a "status quo" tournament, with only one surprise in the Sweet 16--Arizona.

I correctly predicted 23 of the 32 first round games. That, my friends, is mediocre at best. I was a bit more successful in the second round, picking 13 of the 16 games acurately. I had FSU going to the Elite Eight, but they flamed out in the first round. So I'm already behind the eight ball for the next round.

My predictions:

UNC over Gonzaga
Syracuse over Oklahoma
Michigan State over West Virginia (already eliminated)
Louisville over WFU (already eliminated)
Connecticut over Purdue
Memphis over Missouri
FSU (already eliminated) over Pitt
Villanova over Duke

I didn't see the Heels play LSU, but I was happy with the end result. LSU was probably a fifth or sixth seed-caliber team, and they were ready against the Heels.

Congrats to the Duke fans

If Carolina won every ACC Tournament Championship, I would not appreciate our team as much. I am disappointed that the Heels didn't win, but Duke deserves to bask in the glory of their 17th ACC Tournament Championship.

This year was the 56th ACC Tournament. Below is a recap of the number of ACC Tournament Champions since the beginning of the ACC:

1. UNC, 17 total(57,67,68,69,72,75,77,79,81,82,89,91,94,97,98,07,08)
2. Duke, 17 (60,63,64,66,78,80,86,88,92,99,00,01,02,03,05,06,09)
3. NC State, 10 (54,55,56,59,65,70,73,74,83,87).
4. Wake Forest, 4 (61,62,95,96)
5. Georgia Tech, 3 (85,90,93)
6. Maryland, 3 (58, 84, 04)
7. South Carolina, 1 (71)
8. Virginia, 1 (76)

Clemson is now 0 for 56 in the ACC Tournament. Other teams not winning include relatively new members, which are FSU (0 for 17), BC, VT, and Miami.

Recap of ACC Tournament Championships by Coaches:

1. Dean Smith, 13 (67,68,69,72,75,77,79,81,82,89,91,94,97)
2. Mike Krzyzewski, 11 (86,88,92,99,00,01,02,03,05,06,09)
3. Vic Bubas, 4 (60, 63,64,66)
4. Everett Case, 4 (54,55,56,59)
5. Norm Sloan, 3 (70,73,74)
6. Bobby Cremins, 3 (85,90,93)
7. Bones McKinney, 2 (61,62)
8. Frank McGuire, 2 (57,71)
9. Bill Foster, 2 (78,80)
10. Jim Valvano, 2 (83,87)
11. Dave Odom, 2 (95,96)
12. Roy Williams, 2 (07,08)
13. Bud Millikan, 1 (58)
14. Press Maravich, 1 (65)
15. Terry Holland, 1 (76)
16. Lefty Driesell, 1 (84)
17. Bill Guthridge, 1 (98)
18. Gary Williams, 1 (04)

Trivia question, what former Clemson Head Coach has won an ACC Tournament Championship? Answer: Press Maravich. Press was the Head Coach at Clemson from 1956-1962.

FSU defeats UNC 73-70

Check the excuses at the door....

UNC lost to FSU fair and square. UNC tried their best to defeat FSU, but it wasn't meant to be. I thought that Florida State deserved to compete in the championship, while UNC must now regroup for the NCAA's.

Great game! UNC controlled most of the first half, FSU controlled most of the 2nd half, and there was a sprint to the finish, with of course, FSU on top.

Would a healthy Lawson helped UNC? Of course, but Lawson wasn't healthy, and injuries are a part of the game. Injuries expose teams of their natural weakness: the bench. Great teams survive somehow. I don't believe this team is a great team. A pretty darn good team, but great? I don't think so. We lack depth, and our Freshman, sans Davis, have not produced.

Let's regroup and see if Roy and the gang have some magic left in them.

Survive and advance is the name of the game

So far, I'm 2 for 5 in my predictions. While my prognostication skills have been decent during the season, the ACC tournament has proven that I'm nothing more than an amateur.

That's O.K. If I had predicted the outcome correctly in all 11 games, the tournament wouldn't be much fun.

The Heels beat VT by 3, but anyone watching the game should believe that Carolina was lucky. We were lucky, but it wasn't due to bad point guard play. Actually, Frasor and Drew did a superb job at the point. They aren't Lawson, but who is, right?

While watching the game, I noticed that Danny Green was pressing way too much. He has lost his rhythm, but I think that's correctable. Danny must let the game come to him and not force his shots. Going 2-13 from the field is not acceptable. His defensive play was bad at spurts, brilliant at other times. He's a great athelete, but his game has to be part of the Carolina game.

So how did we win? H-A-N-S-B-R-O-U-G-H. He refused to lose.

Carolina played a decent game today. VT played a great game. VT is a NCAA-caliber team, but they will be going to the NIT this year.

The 2009-2010 Heels--a very early preview

Going into the 2008-09 Season, I thought we had a very deep team. I saw 11 players in the rotation, specifically Hansbrough, Thompson, Zeller, Davis, Green, Ginyard, Graves, Ellington, Frasor, Lawson, and Drew. Once again, expect the unexpected.

First: Ginyard is lost for the season.
Second: Zeller was lost for 12 weeks due to an injury.
Third: Graves was suspended from the team.
Fourth: Drew didn't develop his role during the season.

Right now, we are playing a 7-8 player rotation. Green, Hanbrough, and Frasor are graduating, and Lawson and Ellington may be leaving for the NBA. So who is left?

Next year, I see Ed Davis and Thompson starting at the Forward position. We have Zeller coming off the bench, plus we have 3 freshmen power forwards that will be in the mix: John Henson, David Wear, and Travis Wear. Between these players, we should be fine at our forward positions.

We will have Marcus Ginyard back. He will be our swingman and defensive specialist. Leslie McDonald can sub for him next year, so I feel good about this position, too.

At shooting guard, if Ellington doesn't return, we will definitely have Dexter Strickland playing, along with Leslie McDonald. We may even have Will Graves back, but that's still up in the air. I feel fine about our shooting guard prospects for next year.

The dilemma will be at the point guard position. If Lawson doesn't return, Larry Drew is the heir apparent. He's had a shaky freshman year, but I do like his defensive skills. His ballhandling, however, has been suspect. Averaging 9.7 minutes/game, Drew's assist to turnover ratio is 1.45. While that's not a bad ratio, this stat is misleading. In ACC action, he's had 19 assists against 23 turnovers. As a result, his minutes has dwindled during the ACC regular season. He averages only 7.4 minutes/game against ACC opponents. He's shooting less than 40% from the field, and only 50% on the charity stripe.

Does Larry Drew have the talent to play point guard against ACC competition? I think he's capable, but he will need to regain his confidence before the next season. What the Heels do not have is depth at this position. If he falters, the Heels may have to play Ginyard at the point, and to be quite honest, he's far from an ideal point guard.

Overall next year, we will have the depth, we will have some experience, and we will have solid coaching. The burden lies on Larry Drew. Drew is a fierce competitior, so don't count him out yet!

Playing an injured player--ethical dilemma

Will Ty Lawson play in the ACC Tournament? This is the $64,000 question. Should he play? That's a complicated answer.

During this summer, I played in a softball league with my Church. There were 10 teams in our league, and during the Regular Season my team finished 7-5. I'm not a horrible athelete, but I'm not a great one either. I am 37 years old, and I had not played competititve Softball since I was 25 years old. There's a big difference between 25 and 37.

First off, I am not as fast. When I was 25, I probably weighed around 160 lbs. Last summer my weight was around 185. Weight, especially fat, will slow you down.

Second, I might be a tad stronger at age 37, but my body's mechanics have changed. I used to have a rifle for a left arm, but now when I throw my shoulder aches. It's not muscle hurting, but it's probably a rotator cuff issue. I can still throw the ball into the infield, but it's not nearly as accurate nor does the ball have much mustard on it. I can still hit the ball, but I've become more of a "punch and judy" hitter. When I was 25, I pulled the ball over into right field (I'm a lefty). Now I prefer to hit up the middle with solid contact. I think my batting average was a tad over .500, which is not bad (nor is it really good).

During the season, I had numerous injuries. During the first inning of the first game, I pulled my left hamstring. I knew my leg was hurt, but I thought it was nothing more than mind over matter. Later that day I had to talk to some youth, and everyone was asking why I was limping. I told them my leg was cramping badly...I actually thought that was the case. It wasn't until 2 days later that I knew something was wrong. My wife noticed that the back of my leg was totally black. I had pulled a hamstring, and to walk on it was somewhat painful. I decided not to play on the leg the next weekend (couldn't if I wanted to). I came back the next weekend, and I was definitely slower than I was before the season started. My hamstring didn't fully heal until after the season.

In the middle of the season, I sprained my right wrist. My entire hand swelled up twice its normal size. I couldn't put on my outfield glove--it was too painful. Unfortunately our team had to play a double-header that weekend, and my injury occured during the first game. If I didn't play the second game, our team would have forfeited. Instead, I played the game right-handed. I played catcher (usually I played Left-Center or Right-Center). Everytime the ball reached me, I slipped off my glove under my right armpit and threw the ball with my left hand back to the pitcher. Unfortunately, we lost the game, but it wasn't due to a forfeit.

Going back to my point...there's a lot of criticism when a player doesn't play when they are hurt. Every injury is different, and I have no problem when a player misses a game due to an injury. Several people felt that Lawson should have returned to the lineup earlier last year, but I wasn't one of them. Ty Lawson is a strong competititor, and if he didn't play, it was because his body wasn't ready. In this case, Lawson's injury probably helped our team, giving Quinton Thomas a chance to play in game action. When Lawson returned, our bench was more solid as a result.

Injuries are a part of the game. Players know their bodies much better than their coaches or their trainers. Some people question a players "drive" when they don't bounce back from an injury, but I don't buy it. College basketball players push their bodies to the limit continuously during the season, and a person can't do that unless they have that "drive".

If Lawson doesn't play in the ACC Tournament, please accept the fact that he's injured. We should respect our players regardless of their condition.

As far as last year's softball season, our team was seeded 5th. We ended up playing in the Championship game, getting waxed by the best team in the conference. I played that game beaten up (I had a bone bruise on my heel that game--I looked like an old man out there). I went 2 for 3 in that game with 2 RBI's. My defensive game, which used to be my strong point, was pathetic. I'm ready for next season!

ACC Tournament Time

Who will win the ACC Tournament? Let's take a look at the matchups on Thursday night:

Clemson vs. GT. Clemson should win this game, but maybe it won't be a blowout. I give the Tigers the edge.

BC vs. Virginia. BC should win in a cake walk.

Maryland vs. NC State. Which Maryland team will show up? NC State has shown signs of jelling as the season progresses. I think the Wolfpack will beat the Terps.

Miami vs. VT. There will be major effort on both sides...an NCAA Tournament bid is within both program's grasp. Miami has the better talent, VT has the better coach. Miami will prevail


Friday games:

UNC will beat a tired Miami team. UNC will be hungry for a third ACC Championship.
Wake will struggle against a State team, but Wake should prevail in this hard fought game.
BC matches up well against the Blue Devils. I expect BC will defeat the Blue Devils in the 2nd half.
Clemson vs. Florida State. Probably one of the most physical games of the tournament. I think FSU is playing with more emotion, and they will end up victorious.

Saturday semis:

UNC will have the edge against FSU. Having Zeller will allow Carolina to be more aggressive within the paint.

Wake will have a letdown and lose to BC. BC will win the game with their savvy guard play.

Sunday Championship:

UNC avenges their first defeat of the season by taking out their frustrations against BC. Expect an exciting game from both teams.

Greatest ACC Coaches of all-time

Okay, it's time to discuss who have been the best ACC Coaches of all time. There are many great coaches, but only 10 of them will be on my list.

1. Mike Krzyzewski. 3 National Titles, 10 ACC Tournament Championships. Coach K's program has been to the NCAA's 24 out of the last 25 years. I don't believe he's done winning championships, either.
2. Dean Smith. When Dean retired, he was by far the best coach in the ACC. Coach K has won 7 additional ACC championships and a NCAA title. However, Dean still deserves a lot of credit. 2 NCAA championships, 1 NIT Championship, and 13 ACC Tournament Championships. Dean also recruited players who were good people, which is a rarity this day and age.
3. Everett Case. Coach Case was the father of ACC Basketball, winning 4 ACC Tournament Championships during his tenure. A solid recruiter, a solid coach, and the first true promoter of basketball in the South.
4. Vic Bubas. 3 NCAA Final Fours, 4 ACC tournament championships in his 10 years. He was the Dean Smith before Dean Smith.
5. Frank McGuire. 2 ACC Tournament Championships, 1 NCAA Championship. He built 2 ACC programs from the bottom and brought them to the National Spotlight.
6. Roy Williams. Roy is still rising in this ranking, having only coached the Heels for 6 years. But he's taking over a program that was at it's lowest level in the past 50 years and turned them into champions.
7. Bobby Cremins. Bobby won 3 ACC Tournament Championships and brought 1 GT team toe the Final Four. He was a great recruiter but was somewhat limited in his X's and O's ability. He developed a GT program that was in shambles and turned them into winners.
8. Lefty Driesell. Lefty only won 1 ACC tournament, and he never got Maryland in the Final Four, but he sure created a lot of excitement in College Park. Strong recruiter, probably an underrated coach, and a heck of a promoter.
9. Norm Sloan. Norm's not mentioned much these days, especially since his successor won an NCAA Championship. But Norm was a winner, with an undefeated team in 1973 and a NCAA Tournament Championship in 1974. Norm won the ACC Tournament 3 times.
10. Gary Williams. Gary rescued the Terps from the doldrums, and for a few years his team was definitely mediocre. But he kept on recruiting, kept on developing talent, and kept on going to the NCAAs. He won a NCAA Tournament in 2002, and the ACC Tournament in 2004.

I left off some coaches that I would include as Honorable Mentions. This list includes Terry Holland (Virginia), Bill Foster (Duke), Jim Valvano (NC State), and Dave Odom (WFU). In each case I considered the overall achievement of the coach and the subsequent results of their teams after they left. I didn't think Holland's resume was strong enough, Bill Foster really only had 3 great seasons, Valvano's tenure was inconsistent, and his departure left the program in shambles for the next decade (there is some parallel between Driesell and Valvano, but I thought Driesell's departure was mostly out of his own control). Dave Odom had a brilliant stretch for about 6 years, but his program couldn't sustain their winning ways.

Am I a good prognosticator?

There are too many variables involved in predicting the order of the ACC regular season race. But I think I did pretty well for an amateur.

Beginning of the Season, I predicted the following order. The final standings is in parenthesis:

1. UNC (1)
2. Duke (T-2)
3. Wake (T-2)
4. Miami (T-7)
5. Clemson (T-5)
6. VT (T-7)
7. Maryland (T-7)
8. Florida State (4)
9. BC (T-5)
10. NC State (10)
11. Georgia Tech (12)
12. Virginia (11)

I was basically correct on the top 3 picks, and was almost right on the bottom 3 picks (GT came in last instead of Virginia). Florida State and BC were the plesant surprises of the league, while Miami has to be considered a disppointment. The only teams I predicted that did not finish within 1 position of my original prediction were FSU, BC and Miami.

ACC Coach of the year.

Who is the ACC Coach of the Year? I thought I would go in backwards order for my selection.



12. Paul Hewitt. GT might be searching for a coach soon.

11. Frank Haith. His team will have to reach the ACC championship to have any hope of playing in the NCAA tournament.

10. Dave Leitao. His program is in shambles. The UVA players don't appear to enjoy playing basketball. He reminds me off Matt Doherty.

9. Gary Williams. He can coach a great game (remember UNC) and then coach like he doesn't care. I question if his heart is in the game. If he wins 2 games in the ACC tournament, I would consider Maryland for a NCAA berth. Most likely he just coached an NIT team.

8. Sidney Lowe. He did a decent job coaching the Pack, and he deserves another year at the helm. I can't imagine the alums will have much more patience with Lowe.

7. Dino Gaudio. I think he's a good coach, and at the beginning of the season I thought he might be NCAA coach of the year. However, his team struggled too long during the season, and I thought some of the problem could be directed to the coach.

6. Mike Krzyzewski. Coach K is a great coach, but I didn't think he developed his team as well as he did in the past. His team is basically a jump shooting team.

5. Seth Greenberg. Coach Greenberg is a solid coach. He does more with less talent than most coaches can. I couldn't rank him higher since his ACC record is 7-9.

4. Roy Williams. A 27-3 season would make most coaches perform backflips. Not Roy, and not with his talent. Defensive lapses are the only obstacle the Heels face in their travel for a national championship.

3. Oliver Purnell. Great coach, smart man, and he's become a master of developing a program. Clemson will be a team to reckon with as long as Purnell stays at Clemson.

2. Al Skinner. I thought B.C would be on the back bench this year. Coach Skinner proved me wrong. Great job this year!

1. Leonard Hamilton. I thought FSU was a team doomed to always miss the NCAA tournament. Not this year. Leonard Hamilton has done a great job with this program.


Congrats to Leonard Hamilton for winning HEEL FEVER's Coach of the Year!

UNC 79, Duke 71

Although Carolina won the game, I never imagined that the game would play out the way it did. I thought we would see major swings in the scoring margin, but it was just not meant to be. Why did UNC win?

1. UNC involved numerous players into the offense. Ellington, Hansbrough, Green, Frasor, Thompson, Davis and Lawson were involved in the offense.
2. UNC retrieved the rebounds. Duke was unimpressive on the boards.
3. Duke's game was the Singler/Scheyer show. Paulus didn't show up, and neither did McClure, Thompson or Zoubek. Henderson didn't play a good game, and Williams was marginal at best.
4. Bench play. Although Copeland played 3 minutes at the beginning of the game, UNC's bench would have still dominated if the regular starters were in the game. Davis and Frasor played solid games. Duke's bench played exactly 19 minutes, had 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block and 0 points.

UNC is clearly the better team. Duke can beat UNC, no doubt about it. But Duke can't beat UNC as long as UNC is playing its A or B game.

Duke vs UNC, Sunday March 8th 4:00pm

Another renewal of our rivalry. UNC won 10 games in a row, but stumbled against Maryland. GT didn't have the talent or the depth to hang with the Heels, and VT is just not as talented as our team. While some thought we played decent against the Hokies, I was not one of them. Our Defense lacks intensity, and our offense has lacked some movement of recent.

So who has the edge this Sunday? Duke hit a rough spot during the middle of the season, losing 4 of 6 games. They haven't played great since, but instead just good enough to win. I believe that Duke has improved since Coach K has allowed Elliot Williams to play more minutes. He's a solid guard who can hit his shots and play decent D. To be totally honest, he may be our biggest challange Sunday afternoon.

Key to the game:

1. Feed the monster. Psycho T will be playing his last home game, and he should be more psyched than usual. I expect he will score at least 25 points, if not more.
2. Take advantage of the double team. Duke will double and triple team Psycho T, so he needs to recognize this and exploit Duke's D. Ellington and Lawson must drain their 3's.
3. Deon Thompson and Danny Green must be involved in the offense. Both players have played brilliant in spurts, and both players can disappear in a game.
4. Limit turnovers. 15 should be the maximum we allow. We cannot allow sloppy interior passing to our post men.
5. Play Smart D. Stay between the basket and the dribbler. Play heady D. Our transition game works against inferior opponents, but I don't believe it works against the likes of Duke. Minimize the reach-in fouls.

I expect the game to have many ebbs and flows. Don't fret it when Duke has a 10 point lead, because it will probably happen. Coach K is a master technician of this game, and I have tremendous respect of his program. However, UNC has more talent, they have more weapons, and the intangibles of this game favors the Heels.

Prediction: UNC 91, Duke 87.

Hit me with your best shot!

I love Pat Benatar's music, and this year the song "Hit me with your best shot" rings in my ears. Several times this year the opposition has drained 3 pointer after 3 pointer against our perimeter defense. Why is the question.

1. Where's Marcus? Medical redshirt. Marcus was our stopper, but he can only do so much in a nice dress suit.
2. Ty Lawson's height. He's 5-10. Several big guards are 6-4 to 6-6, and they can easily shoot over Ty's outstreched arms.
3. Bobby Frasor has a new role on this team: defensive stopper. To be a defensive stopper, you have to be quick. Bobby's not slow, but he has lost a step since his Freshman year.
4. Ellington is not a good defensive player. He has improved, but he takes certain risks that put us out of position during the game. He does record some steals, but his play would be better if he was in front of the dribbler instead of being at the side. I like it when the defender is between the basket and the shooter.
5. Will Graves has been kicked off the team. While he was never a defensive expert, he did offer 10 minutes of fresh legs in the game.
6. Will Drew II can play some D, but his point guard skills are suspect. That's why his minutes are usually in the single digits.

We need to play smart ball. If we are fundamentally sound, our offense will usually win the games for us. Our Defense doesn't carry our team, but a lack of defense allows our opponents to win a game or two.