UNC 89, NC State 80

NC State played a very solid game last night. Javier Gonzalez lit it up last night, shooting 7-8 from the field, 4-4 from the 3 point land. I've been asked "why was Gonzalez loosely guarded in the first half?". Simple answer: we are not used to Gonzalez shooting as well as he did. Before last night, Javier has made 22 out of 60 shots, so he was an unproven quantity. He did have 5 turnovers, but I thought he was State's MVP of the game.

NC State is for real...they have a legitimate chance of finishing 8-8 in the conference this year. They should be favored to beat UVA and Maryland, and the BC game should be fairly even. I think they can pull it out against Miami, too. WFU will be their hardest test (really depends which WFU team shows up). The Pack beat WFU a week ago, so it may be hard to expect a sweep. Before the UNC game, I've not been impressed with Lowe's handling of the team. Last night I thought that Lowe outcoached Roy, especially with his gameplan to allow Gonzalez to shoot the 3 ball.

The Heels are rolling...I don't expect them to finish 14-2 in the conference, but the Heels have a legitimate chance of pulling it off. I'm worried about how Zeller's presence may upset team chemistry. Zeller played okay last night, especially since this is his first action in 3 months. He's weak on D, and his shooting touch is rusty. I expect Roy to play Zeller about 10-15 minutes a game, spelling Thompson, Hansbrough and Davis from time to time.

UNC plays at Maryland this Saturday. Maryland has some weaknesses that have been exploited by talented teams, including the Heels. The Maryland-Clemson game was a blowout--I felt that Maryland has mental lapses that allow the opposing team to make huge runs. Don't count out Maryland yet: they are still coached by Gary Williams. Gary is not a great coach, but he can motivate a team to play a great game. Don't forget the victory Maryland had against UNC in the DeanDome last year.

UNC vs. NC State

The rivalry has waned over the last 15 years. Since 1993, UNC has won 4 ACC Tournament Championships and 2 NCAA championships. NC State has no Championships during the same time. What went wrong?

Can you say V-A-L-V-A-N-O? It's not that easy, but Jimmy V may have caused some of the downfall. After he left (forced to resign), NC State endured 6 years of heartache under Les Robinson. Les was handicapped by tragedy (another guy named Robinson committed suicide), grades (Seale, Kornegay, et al), transfers and injuries. That's part of the game, but State had far more than their share of grief. The biggest handicap was improved educational standards that exceeded the ACC standards. Herb took over, beginning with the 96-97 season. Sendek could flat out coach, but he too was a victim of higher standards and a fog that seemed to surround the program. Sendek did turn the corner, taking the Pack to 5 consecutive NCAA tourneys.

So why did I mention Valvano? Valvano could flat out recruit. He could flat out coach. He just could not monitor the program and the perception that he had a bunch of players galavanting any way they please. He also had a poor graduating rate. Of course, I don't blame Valvano that his players didn't graduate (players are responsible to attend class, obtain passing grades). I do blame him for not judging character any better than he did. In April 1990, when he left, the State administration promised to change the character of the team. They did in ways that were good, but the W-L aspect was compromised.

Sidney Lowe is a good man, and he has some good players. He can recruit talent, but can he coach it? To his credit, he did beat UNC in his first try, and he did take State to the ACC championship game in 2007, but he has done little since.

Tonight is the rematch of this old rivalry. State has everything to gain, and nothing to lose, except the game, of course. UNC has a lot to lose, but they have enough talent to defeat the Pack at home.

Prediction: UNC 82, State 70.

Updated Predictions for the ACC

Since the season is more than half way thru, I thought I'd give an updated projections on how the ACC season should end.

1. UNC. The regular season championship is within their grasps. However, they still have some crucial games left. Miami is a good team that has not played well until recently. VT will be a major challenge. We have to play Maryland, and I expect the Terps to be ready for us. And then there is always Duke. We should beat NCSU and GT, but nothing is a given.
2. Duke. The Devils have hit a rough spot, losing 3 out of 5. We will learn a lot about the Devils when they play BC this weekend. I'm really interested in their re-match with Maryland. Maryland should perform much better the next time they meet.
3. Clemson. They are playing some great ball. They are strong enough to win the rest of their regular season games, but I don't think that will happen. The last few years Clemson has come back to earth in the 2nd half of the season, but I think their schedule should favor them better this year. Don't be surprised if they actually finish ahead of Duke, or even tied with UNC.
4. Don't count out Wake Forest. Sure, they have lost 4 out of 6, but they have the talent and the depth to recover. A 10-6 record within the ACC would be a major step in the right direction for this team.
5. Virginia Tech is for real. They are hitting their stride and should finish in the upper half of the ACC. A good, but not great team in regards to talent has a great coach in Greenberg.
6. Florida State has the talent, but they tend to be too physical for my taste. I've noticed that the refs are not allowing the Seminoles to get away with as much as they did at the beginning of the season.
7. Miami may be 4-6, but I think they will finish 8-8 in the conference. After UNC, they should have a decent chance of winning the rest of their games. And they can upset UNC.
8. Boston College has a hard schedule for the rest of the season. They could finish 8-8, but they could disappoint their fan base. Give Skinner credit: he's improved the team immensely since the beginning of the season.
9. Maryland has to play VT, Clemson, UNC and Duke the next 2 weeks. They may lose all four of these games. They could surprise and split these games, but I anticipate them going 1-3 in this stretch. They also have to play at NCSU, home against Wake, and at UVA. A 6-10 record is probably where they are heading.
10. Don't count NC State out just yet. They are playing decent ball, and they could finish 9th in the conference ahead of Maryland. This team lacks talent and depth, but they have a lot of heart.
11. Virginia has 5 home games and 2 road games left, so they should have some intangibles in their favor. They lack overall talent, and they have a coach that could be fired at the end of the season.
12. Georgia Tech is a program that has tanked since 2004. This year's team is not as bad as their record indicates, but they cannot split their close games. They've lost to UVA, NCSU, and BC in overtime, lost to MD by 7, and 1 FSU by 4, and VT by 5. They did beat a Wake team by 2, but that is a Wake team that is struggling with their confidence. Chalk it up to a fluke.

At the begining of the season, I predicted the following, with my updated projections in parenthesis:

1. UNC (1)
2. Duke (2)
3. Wake (4)
4. Miami (7)
5. Clemson (3)
6. VT (5)
7. Maryland (9)
8. Florida State (6)
9. BC (8)
10. NCSU (10)
11. GT (12)
12. Virginia (11)

As you can see, the ACC is unpredictable. However, there is not one team that has changed more than 3 positions from my original predictions (Only Miami has changed 3 positions).

UNC 101, Duke 87

UNC and Duke played an intense game last night! I loved the results of the victory, and I wanted to point out the unsung heroes wearing the Carolina Blue Colors last night.

1. Bobby Frasor hit 3 3-pointers in a row in the first half. Bobby has game, and he will rise to the occassion. Although his shot has abandoned him during the season, his leadership has not waned.
2. Deon Thompson has been in a slump for a month and a half. Last night might be the beginning of the monster we had in November and December.
3. Ty Lawson is not only the quickest player wearing Carolina Blue, but he's the smartest. You can't teach instincts, and you can only hope that a player can read the opposing player's psyche. Lawson did just that in the 2nd half.

Give Duke credit--when they were on, they are unbeatable. They took the momentum from us in the last 10 minutes in the 1st half, coming back from an 11 point deficit to a 9 point lead. They have the best team concept in the league. I saw very little selfish play last night from the Blue Devils (same with UNC, too). Duke played a great game, and they will be successful for the rest of the season, too.

UNC vs. Duke, Round 1

UNC and Duke are tied for first place in the ACC, both sporting records of 7-2. Who has the advantage tonight?

Two major matchups tonight:

1. UNC's perimeter defense vs. Duke's 3-point shooters. Duke averages 20 3-point attempts a game, making 7 per game. This is not a great percentage, but they can shoot lights out on some nights. UNC has given up some big numbers against talented guards, specifically Rice of BC and Teague of Wake.
2. UNC's inside game vs. Duke's small lineup. UNC should have its way against Zoubek and Thomas. I don't see anyone stopping Davis and Hansbrough effectively tonight.

Duke's got a good team, probably performing better than what I expected out of them at this point in 2009. They have shown some vulnerability against the full court trap, especially how Clemson dominated them last week. I'm sure Coach K has worked to improve this facet, but UNC may be able to exploit this weakness tonight.

Some interesting stats:

• UNC averages 7 for 19 from 3 point land this year, vs. Duke's 7-20.
• Duke's shooting 45% from the field. UNC averages 49%
• UNC averages 43 rebounds per game. Duke averages 40.
• All five UNC starters average at least 10 points a game. Duke has only 3 averaging at least 10 points a game.
• UNC has 8 players receiving regular game minutes. Duke has 9, but Duke also has 2 players averaging more than 30 minutes a game (Hansbrough averages the most for the Heels with 29).

UNC can match Duke on perimeter offense, and can dominate Duke within the paint. It's up to Duke to hit their 3 pointers if they want to win this game.

Prediction: UNC 80, Duke 75.

My predictions back in November.

Do you remember my predictions at the beginning of the season? Well, let's go back and revisit my picks http://heelfever.blogspot.com/2008/11/back-to-basketball.html.

12. Virginia. The are right now 1/2 game ahead of GT, in 11th place. Bye Bye, Dave Leitao.

11. Georgia Tech. Predicted to be 11th, and they are in 12th. Paul Hewitt may want to apply as the Bulldogs head coach next season...he may need a job.

10. NC State. They are in 10th place...not really where the Wolfpack alums want. Sidney Lowe's got one more season to prove himself.

9. Boston College. Al Skinner has done a great job this season. The team has talent, defeating UNC (and losing to Harvard). Currently in 5th place, looking at a decent seed in the NCAA tourney.

8. Florida State. Currently in 7th place with a 16-5 overall record. They are probably in the NCAA's at this point. This team is physical, and I don't care for their coach, Leonard Hamilton. The coach doesn't mind it when the other team's players are injured by one of his players, notably Reid.

7. Maryland. Currently in 8th place. Gary Williams has lost his magic. I expect Maryland to miss the tourney for another year. Gary needs to go ahead and retire.

6. Virginia Tech. Currently in 6th place. Seth Greenberg has a good team, and I expect to see them in the NCAA tourney this year. They are 14-7 and improving.

5. Clemson. They are tied for 3rd place with WFU. Another strong start by the Tigers, but do we expect another swan dive? Oliver Purnell's a fine coach, and each year he has the Tigers playing a little better.

4. Miami. I missed the ball on this team. They have a lot of talent, but I question the coaching. Frank Haith's team is underperforming, and I blame this young coach for that. They are out of the the NCAA's at this juncture of the season.

3. Wake Forest. Tied for 3rd, but may be the tallest team in the nation. They have already defeated the best 2 teams in the ACC, but has lost against the worst (GT) and the 6th place team (VT). Nerves?

2. Duke. Currently in first, and have played exceptionally well so far this season. I expect Duke will lose a few more games in the ACC, and hopefully 1 or 2 will be against the Heels.

1. UNC. Who could have expected so many injuries? I thought we had the deepest bench in the nation coming into the season, and at this point, we really have a bench of 3. UNC has won 5 games straight, so hopefully the mighty team has corrected course.

UNC 93, State 76

NC State played a good game. UNC played a good game. The score was very indicative of the actual game played. UNC just has better talent. Copeland/McCauley? Who cares? I don't.

UNC is 5-2 in the ACC, with home games against Maryland and Virginia this week. UNC should handily defeat both of these teams. Let's "hold serve" and play Duke next Wednesday for the right to be first in the ACC. Duke's got a few hard games this week, playing at Clemson and hosting Miami.