Can UNC forget FSU and beat NC State?

I don't like blaming the refs, but the UNC-FSU game was poorly called. The calls went both ways, but I felt that the foul calling was as inconsistent as I've ever seen.

UNC won, beating FSU by 3. FSU is not a bad team, but they are a football school (or at least they used to be one).

NC State is just not that good. They have a few talented athletes in McCauley, Costner, and Fells, but they are about it. Lawson will own Degand. McCauley and Costner will have their hands full inside.

A great coach might be able to pull this one out for NC State. I don't believe Sidney Lowe is a great coach.

Prediction: UNC 90, NC State 70.

WF vs. Duke, UNC vs. FSU

UNC should beat FSU tonight as long as they survive the dump that FSU plays in. I don't see FSU beating UNC as long as UNC plays its game and is not rattled by the fans.

Prediction: UNC 90, FSU 74.

Wake vs. Duke will be a classic battle. Sure, Wake lost to VT, but that loss in itself should not be surprising. VT is an NCAA tournament-caliber team. Duke lives by the 3 pointer, and they die by the 3 pointer. Wake's big men should thrive against Zoubek and Singler, and Wake's perimeter D should handle Duke's perimeter game. I don't expect a blowout, but Wake has the advantage.

Wake 84, Duke 78.

2 victories later...

UNC defeated a weak Virginia team last week, but it's hard to measure how our team performed. A win is a win...

Miami, on the other hand, has talent. They can shoot the ball, rebound, and play strong D. At one point, with the Heels down by 9, I thought UNC was heading to 1-3. Thanfully, UNC played 5 minutes of some of the best basketball for the season. UNC's 13-0 run left the Heels at halftime ahead 36-32. Hansbrough had 20 of the 36 points.

Miami still had a chance to win, but UNC would not allow it to happen. Enter Wayne Ellington, who was on fire, hitting 7 consecutive 3 pointers. Ellington also turned it up a notch on defense. Overall, our starting 5 looked pretty darn good. Davis may be the best 6 man in the game.

Tonight we play Clemson, a team that has only lost 1 game all season. UNC will need to turn up the heat on D to win this game. Here are the keys to a UNC victory:

1. Play a mixture of man-to-man and zone. Carolina's defense has improved recently, but we are still struggling to defend the perimeter. Mixing it up on D may confuse the Tigers.
2. Hit the open jump shot. Ellington and Lawson are making their shots. Graves has shown some promise, albeit inconsistently. Frasor is still struggling to find a rhythm.
3. Rebound the ball. Clemson has some big men that can find the loose rebound. Thompson needs to step it up on D and become a rebounding machine.
4. Make the free throws. I want Carolina to hit 80% of their free throws tonight.

UNC has the talent, and they have the coaching. We may be lacking some confidence, but tonight could allow our players to find their mojo...again.

Prediction: UNC 84, Clemson 80.

Wake 92, UNC 89

• UNC is now 0-2 in the ACC. And no, I'm not in panic mode.

So what went wrong?

1. Defense. Lawson cannot adequately guard a taller shooter. We need Ginyard to defend the Teagues and the Hales that have the hot hand.
2. Bench. Again, we only have Davis that is dependable on both sides of the court.
3. Shooting. Ellington, Graves, Frasor, Lawson, and Drew have to step up their shooting touch if we are going to regain our number one status.
4. Assists. We scored 89 points, but we only had 9 assists. That's horrible. We made 26 field goals, and to have less than 50% of these baskets is unacceptable. Remember the Michigan State game? 34 made field goals, and 20 assists.

So what does the Heels need to regain their mojo?

1. Intensity. It's lacking. Hopefully Ginyard will be back in the lineup to correct some of this problem.
2. Shooting touch. Teams that live by the 3 pointer die by the 3 pointer (a la Duke). We don't need to force our shots, but let them come to us. Easier said than done.
3. Defense. We can play D, but it appears that other teams know that we have trouble defending the perimeter. We need to play more zone during the game to give the other team a different look. Athleticism alone will not win our games, especially against WF, Clemson, Duke et al.

I have purposely left out Deon Thompson, who was our MVP for the first month of our season. The last 3 weeks he has had trouble making simple shots, and his rebounding stats (sans WFU) has not been impressive. I'm not against having UNC play a smaller lineup, with Green and Hansbrough playing inside and having 3 perimeter players defending the outside. But who? Obviously we will play Lawson and Ellington, but that 3rd position could go to a cast of characters (Drew II, Graves, Frasor). I'd consider having Bobby Frasor play the 3rd guard position, especially since he has started in our lineup in the past. He gives us a reliable ball handler, and he's okay on defense. With Graves, we have more size, and we do have another threat at shooting the three, but his defense is suspect. Regarding Drew II, I'd be hesistant to start him, although he's a good defender.

If we were to start a 3rd guard (let's say it's Frasor), we would improve our bench. We would have Thompson (who would likely be simmering mad) and Davis to spell for Green and Hansbrough inside. We would also have Graves, who would probably want to compete with Frasor for the 3rd guard position, more competitive.

The season is young, but we must adapt to our competition better if we want to have a tremendous season.

Is 0-2 in the ACC a possibility?

Yes.

Will it happen? It might.

Am I worried about staring at the prospect of being 0-2? No. The season is young.

Okay, I'm done answering my own questions. UNC is playing a very solid team on Sunday, probably the best team we have to play in the regular season. Wake is loaded, but they are also young. Carolina is a veteran-laden team with plenty of talent too. UNC can win the close games, and they proved it with the team from last year. That being said, last year's team is not playing Sunday.

Keys for a UNC victory:

1. Feed the monster. Tyler Hansbrough must dominate the inside for Carolina, and he must make Wake Forest double-team him all night long. I don't mind at all when teams double and triple team Hansbrough because that plays into our other strengths.
2. Transition game. Carolina's transition game has sputtered recently. We are having trouble executing the easy layups, and that problem must end.
3. A strong bench performance. I saw hope on Wednesday when Frasor buried 2 threes. He may be regaining his shooting touch, and hopefully this will rub off on Will Graves. Ed Davis must assert himself both on Offense and Defense. Larry Drew II must be a dependable backup for Lawson at the point.
4. Intensity. Roy needs to get out his bag of tricks and motivate our team, making them believe that people are expecting a Wake Forest win. I like to see some anger from our mild mannered Heels (sans Hansbrough, who was born mad).

Looking back, the BC loss should not have been unexpected, although I thought we'd beat them by double digits. Carolina was on cruise control for the 5 previous games, relying on their natural ability and not their execution.

I predict that Carolina will be fired up against WFU, and there will be some definite momentum swings during the game. I also believe that this WF team has never played such a big game before, and they will not be ready to play a mad, athletic team like UNC. I expect a close game in the first half, with Carolina leading by a few points. As the game goes on, don't be surprised if Carolina turns it up another notch with 5-6 minutes left and win by a score not indicitive with how close the game really was.

Final Score: UNC 85, WFU 75. I have faith in the Heels, and I only hope I don't eat my words.

Chris Collins in the news

Okay, let me preface this post by admitting my bias. I have never been a fan of Chris Collins. Chris played at Duke from 1992-1996, usually as a role player on an erratic team. He was known for his emotions and his enthusiasm for Duke Basketball. I never liked his theatrics nor did I like his game. He was a streaky shooter who could be hot on some nights, and then incredibly cold. I think the 1994-1995 season he was mostly cold. I also remember he was one of the original floppers. See for yourself. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgdsKisGvJI.

When I heard that Coach K hired Collins on his staff (hired in 2000), I cringed. Sure, his dad had some success as a coach, but Collins seemed more emotional and more erratic than his father.

Another memory was the 2002-2003 season, where I thought for a moment that he and Doherty were going to fight. Doherty was checking on Raymond Felton (who had an injury), and Collins was jawing at Doh. For some reason Andre Buckner shoved Doh, who shoved back. Collins was still yelling. Good thing there wasn't a fight--I'd take Doh's reach over Collins' scrappyness.

Just recently, Collins made the headlines for attending a high school tournament during a dead period. Careless mistake, or was it calculated with total disregard for the NCAA rules?

Okay, let me defend Collins. I may not care for him, but I seriously doubt if he'd ever want to jeopardize Duke's reputation for this game. I think it was carelessness, and nothing more. I'm glad that Duke self-reported their violation to the NCAA. And no, I don't want any sanctions placed against Duke, except maybe limiting their exposure to the recruits that Collins may have viewed illegally.

UNC 108, College of Charleston 70

Yes, we won by 38 points, but during the game I noticed several weaknesses about our team. I actually viewed the game from the upper level at the Dean Dome, which really addresses our most pressing needs.

1. Our transition game has become sloppy. We are not making smart decisions on the run. Probably our biggest problem is making crisp passes to the lead man. We can resolve this issue via practicing our fundamentals.
2. Intensity. Our team lacks intensity ever since our matchup against Michigan State. I believe Carolina needs some rallying call to bring the players together.
3. Team Defense. When we trap, we leave a wide open player, mostly on the perimeter, but sometimes inside. I do believe our coaches are "daring" the competition to shoot from outside, which may have assisted in our loss against BC.
4. Athleticism. No, I don't believe we lack athleticism, but for some reason I believe there may be some lingering injuries to a key player, and it really shows on defense. I'm speaking of Ty Lawson. I don't know if he's injured, but I saw him get faked out several times on defense by a marginal college of charleston player.
5. The mystery bench. I don't buy the argument that Carolina is a deep team. We may have been before the season started, but we do have some problems. Frasor has only recently picked up his game. Graves is really a poor man's Ellington. He can shoot well, but his defensive ability is lacking. Ed Davis is solid, and he's probably our most athletic player on our roster. Larry Drew II has shown that he's a freshman that will make freshman mistakes, which is only mitigated by his athleticism.
6. Injuries. We miss Zeller--he would have helped us against BC. Ginyard is not well, and we miss him on defense.

I'm not wrting off this season, but it's amazing how much our team has changed since last year. We will be okay, but unless we address the above mentioned problems, we will have a disappointing season.

BC 82, UNC 75

Don't panic, but UNC lost to BC.

Again, don't panic.

UNC has not played a great game since they defeated Michigan State, about 5 games ago. I thought that when we came out of exams, we were flat. I also think there are other issues.

First: UNC really has only 1 Freshman that is contributing to the team. Zeller was lost after the second game, and Drew has just been inconsistent.

Second: Defense has been shaky. Individually our players are very solid, but there appears to be a lack of team defense. The opposition has too many offensive rebounds for my liking.

Third: Transition. Teams realize that after a missed shot, the guards must immediately take a few steps back in case there is a potential layup.


Again, don't worry. UNC will be fine this year, and we will probably go on another roll. This loss will cause the players to regain their focus and realize they need to work together.