Hello everyone!
I am a proud 1993 graduate of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. To say the least, I'm very excited about our hoops prospects this year. We've got depth, size, speed, shooting touch, and rebounding. What could possibly go wrong? Well, let's say plenty of things. Let's look at how the Heels did the first five years after I graduated (1994-1998).
1994--It's possible to have too much depth. When you have McInnis, Wallace and Stackhouse coming off the bench, you may have too much depth. We did get an ACC Tournament Championship, along with 2 victories against Duke. However, we lost to BC in the 2nd round in the NCAA's.
1995--Final Four, a share of the regular season ACC title, along with two more victories against Duke.
1996--Another 2nd round flameout. Lost in the first round to Clemson. Major accomplishment--beat Duke twice.
1997--Final Four, ACC Tournament Champions, and beat Duke once.
1998--Final Four, ACC Tournament Champions, and we beat Duke twice (once in the Regular Seaon, once in the ACC Tournament Championship).
In all fairness, UNC was in the Final Four 3 of these 5 years. In 1994, UNC probably had the most talent in the Nation, and we had much more talent than our 1993 team (the 1993 team graduated Rodl and Lynch, while the 1994 team added Wallace, McInnis, and Stackhouse). We should have been a major threat for the Championship, but our season went down the tubes. The 1995 team was just happy to be at the Final Four. Probably the same for the 1997 team, except for the fact that Dean Smith had just taken the all time lead in victories. The 1998 team, however, was the most talented team in the nation that year.
My conclusion is that not every year the team with the most talent wins. There are many threats to this Tar Heel team: injuries, chemistry problems, and freshmen with important roles. Without rocking the boat, I predict that the Tar Heels will lose 6 games this year.
What do you think?
Assuming we win all of our non-cpnference games, I am having trouble finding 6 losses in thte ACC. I figure a loss to Duke, Maryland, and that one dumb loss that happens yearly. But that's 3. If we lose in both the ACC and NCAA tourneys, that's 5.
ReplyDeleteWhich games are you predicting we lose?
Great question swingtrader. I think UNC will have some tough matches against Michigan State, at least one game in the Maui Invitational, Wake Forest, Miami (2 games), Maryland (2), Duke (2), VT, ACC tourney, and NCAA tournament. Also, we have to play Virginia at Virginia, and it doesn't matter how bad they are, they will play us tough in Charlottesville. We should be favored to win all these games (at Wake and both games against Duke are my biggest concerns).
ReplyDeleteIf I had to pick the games that we will lose, I'd say at Michigan State, at Wake Forest, at Duke, at Maryland, one game at home against some team above, and a loss in the ACC Tournament. I don't believe we will win the Tourney 3 years in a row, but I'd love to be proven wrong.
My biggest concern is that big target on our backs. Teams will be gunning for us this year, and the Hansbrough injury concerns me as well. Although Quinton Thomas was limited in ability, he was a leader of last year's team, and that leadership may be missed.